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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason predictions.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the biggest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it fuels an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest race is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually deep. It has been the season of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime underperformers rising together. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the projected vote could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson not only corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open targets all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!

Where his case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. But he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a swift resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the leadership stuff, which wasn't a given after his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the conference's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.

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